Coalition in local government ; will you still love me tomorrow?

Coalitions in local government; will you still love me tomorrow?

2 weeks after the council elections, both here in Scotland and elsewhere in the UK we are almost at the point of knowing what multi-coloured combination of different parties will run non-majority [is unmajority a word?]  Councils in England/Wales and Scotland; I ‘m concentrating on the latter. Strictly speaking we are discussing what kind of party /non-party combination will   run these councils for this current year and any successive years they decide to stick with.

What do we know about this and what should we think about it?  Well, as always the best source for finding out who’s doing what, where, is probably this BBC website, which tends to update more frequently than others.

There are various  questions that we can ask and answer about coalitions in local government, and sometimes the answers to those questions  can go some way to explaining what we have and why , and what might be some possible implications for such  arrangements  in the future.

Are coalitions needed?

Not necessarily. Councils don’t declare war; axe benefits; reduce/increase taxes; sway exchange rates so they rarely decide matters that are life and death. It is perfectly possible for a reasonably sized minority party to assume control of a council if these conditions can be met:

·        all the other parties are  broadly equally balanced in numbers  ;

·        are willing to signal in advance what matters  they intended to dispute or oppose; and

·        Those other parties don’t engage in the kind of guerrilla war of opposition that just grinds everybody down.

The other key factor always worth bearing in mind is that the procedures of most council provide for committee convenors etc. to be elected annually and only challenged annually. Convenors of each council in Scotland [whatever their formal title] are elected for the life of the council. So a minority can run a council, if they can shrug off occasional defeats on some of the proposals they make to the council. They can also generally ignore grandstanding ‘motions of no confidence ‘…it doesn’t matter a toss whether other parties have no confidence in you , it’s loss of confidence in your own party that counts – vide Culture Secretary  Heremy Junt  M.P. [ as this unfortunate  now appears to be known] .

Are coalitions that novel?

No, not at all. They  may return , but the days of solid  party majority councils have been under pressure for  the better part of 30 years , although there now appears to be a shift back to more solid  2 party conflict in some parts of the UK   .

Read an excellent paper by Chris Game of  Birmingham University in an Institute of Government publication from earlier this year, to see the extent of what  has been a  mixed picture over time and one that still has a lot of complexity to it . Chris  points out that from a high point of about 1/3  of councils being NOC  [ No overall control ] we have recently come down to about 25%. He also points out that the previous enthusiasm for ‘power sharing ‘ , a term using more often than ‘coalition ‘ has tended to move toward minority control councils . Whatever the longer term direction, the work by Game suggests that there are dynamic factors at play in different councils rather than just numerical calculation.  Actually if you think about this critically any form  of coalition is but  a temporary formalisation  of No Overall Control and so in Scotland we have  about ¾ of councils that are in this more or less  fragile territory .

But most councillors  don’t like minority  councils do they?

No.

 Let’s face it, the logic of standing as a party candidate  , and a party  that aspires to run things is that you really , secretly , want to win every contest, and sometimes that happens. When the blood is up in an election , not only do the most absurd delusions hit some candidates , they also want to obliterate the opposition – don’t believe anybody who tells you otherwise, even if the pretend they’re in a nice party .

In  Scotland [ on currently held voting attitudes]  , STV makes the total  obliteration of all opponents impossible. Even where everybody elected is an ‘Independent ‘,  then the clue is on  the banner  – they are independent of each other as well as independent of party . In some cases, apparently  none the nicer  for it .

Even in all out election councils in England such wipe outs do not  happen as often as they   used to, when 60 out of 60  was not unusual in some urban councils .

In the kind of STV system we now have for council elections in Scotland , there is a reasonable expectation that parties can have some sense of the minimum number they can hope to elect, and have to project /hope/guess the maximum they might win .

But do leaders  anticipate coalitions  ?

They deny it ….however.

In English and Welsh councils , with a plurality [FPTP] voting system,  most serious parties , other than in  periods they have suffered a demoralising defeat still stand candidates for every vacant position , though knowing they won’t elect them, as a gesture to show how serious they are  .

Incidentally, on two occasions when I have interviewed newly elected councillors , the most unhappy  were those who had been assured they were ‘paper ‘ candidates and then unexpectedly found themselves to be elected – adding much disruption and resentment  of their party  to their lives .

Of course, no matter what parties  say in public,  most  of them  have  accepted  they cannot win a majority in a council; the clue is in the number of candidates  . In various councils this time round  , ranging from South Ayrshire [ Labour/Conservative now ],  to Midlothian  [ SNP / ‘sometime ‘ Conservative  now ], to Edinburgh [ Labour /SNP now ] and East Ayrshire [ SNP / Conservative now ],  all the serious parties nominated insufficient candidates to ensure a party majority .

They, and contestants in many other council,  knew that even if they did very well , they would at best be in coalition, .

Did parties [ and their leaders ]  plan for coalitions in advance ?

As far as I hear , not in the sense of formally discussing who might chum up with whom and who might hold the various offices in a council . Clearly in some places where results always looked to be tight and where there were some individual councillors [ whether Independents or prominent members of real minority parties ] there was likely some vague speculative discussion beforehand .

After all , in various Scottish councils  , council control has been won in the past by trading an office [ usually Lord Provost , Provost , or Convenor  ] for a vote/s. Remember ; unlike in England or Wales , such positions are elected for the full term of the council, are not annual and honorific  and therefore have real ‘vote trading’ power. [ East Lothian results , 2012 : 10 Labour ; 9 SNP ; 3 Conservative; 1 Independent councillor  . Labour /Conservative  council ;  Conservative Provost].

In councils where all expectations were about the post May 2012 membership being an assortment of various parties of greater or lesser size  then there were clearly instances of discussion /speculation /whimsical chat and gossip . In Glasgow , at points  when the SNP  and many others really thought they were on a winning roll , the expression of a view  by the Green candidates  that they ‘…thought it time for a change ..’ was seen as white smoke  for an SNP + some others  coalition , whether formal or otherwise.

What does a coalition need ?

Apart from the obvious first condition that parties seek to achieve , i.e.at least 50% of the votes + 1,  what is often sought is the minimal model of coalition . That is the fewest number of parties involved in order that each party can maximise its ‘spoils ‘ from coalition . Actually , this academic proposition  does not actually have   great predictive force whether in Scottish councils or multi – party European governments [ think Borgen here ].

The experience of council coalitions  seems  to suggest  that local and dynamic effects play an important part. Can parties and councillors  set aside high order ideological differences and focus on what they can do and agree to do locally ? Where they have competing approaches to specific options and policies can they craft a form  of words  that captures both points of view? In Edinburgh , the Labour-SNP coalition has drafted a lengthy document  [ which is a bit too legalised for my taste] that outlines some 50   ‘commitments ‘ . I happen to agree with most of them but: 

a] you’d have  a heart of stone to disagree with many of them; and

 b] only about half a dozen are specific, itemised and in any way time bound.

Have people worked together before across formal party boundaries ? Do they have trust in each other  as an entire team or , if some /many are  newly elected are there trusted figureheads?  In discussion with councillors it is quite  common to find that they’ll often  have  considerable  respect for people from another party. That kind of thing makes coalitions work. Look at East Renfrewshire , where the SNP and Labour have had one coalition for the past 5 years and now have another … it’s getting to be a bit like those Elizabeth Taylor re-marriages of old .

This is Jim Fletcher, Labour Leader:

“"When we began working with each other in 2007, there was a natural mistrust - we were the first Labour and SNP groups to do this in Scotland and it was new and novel.

"We got over that mistrust and on a day-to-day level the way the two parties have worked has been very harmonious."

In Fife they have today   elected  Jim Leishman as Provost [Convenor] of the council .

The other factor that can force  coalitions to  emerge – though whether they work in the longer term is still to be tested -  is that what we see emerge  is not always the first attempt . In several of the councils mentioned above – and others  not mentioned – the first discussions were between parties that eventually decided not to   coalesce .

The contrived  anger of  those  left on the edge of the dance floor  is amusing to read /watch… the SNP in Fife ; Labour in Dumfries  .  Actually in most councils it appears that discussions were multilateral in form , whether covertly or openly so a variety of combinations were always possible .

Creating a successful coalitions probably don’t need people chipping in from the wings in real time either.

Chic Brodie,  SNP MSP for South of Scotland, represents a list region that includes Dumfries and Galloway ; East Ayrshire; and  South Ayrshire.

On Sunday 13^th we were told that Chic thought:

“Labour's commitment to progressive politics is in question after the party formed even more formal coalitions with the Tory party in councils across Scotland says the SNP.

SNP MSP for South Scotland, Chic Brodie, who represents South Ayrshire where one of these formal coalitions is in place said “ Labour had also betrayed their voters with their decision to form administrations with the Tories in local authorities across Scotland.”

Over the next few days  , in rapid succession , council coalitions were confirmed in :

East Ayrshire [ SNP /Conservative ] and

Dumfries and Galloway [ SNP/Conservative ].

Maybe Mr Brodie  assumes  a different class of Conservative is to be  found in Dumfries and East Ayrshire; or maybe nobody talks to him .

Just how solid and formal is all  this coalition stuff ?

Well ; first all coalitions are transient in form ; it is just that the time span varies .

Sometimes it is for an agree period ; or the completion of  a given set of objectives ;  or until a given staging point in a programme  .

Experience , observation and time will tell us . Given that in various parts of Scotland there are now coalitions between  all parties  regardless of prior expressions of long term rivalry and indeed animosity, I think we can reasonably consider three possibilities that might occur 2012-2017.

·        Those now in place last a  full run barring unforseen deaths ; resignations ; or sudden conversions of party . In The  Highland Council one happened just the day after the elections, which is supercharged  Britney Spears   I guess.

·        Some parties review their choices mid term  or at a year end, and do a  swop of  partners .

·        Some coalitions drift with increasing internal dissent and resentment and parties peel away leaving minority councils.

I am running  a book allocating various councils into some of these categories ;

I’m not offering odds yet. Try Paddypower .

RK  May 2012

Scottish Councils – May 3^rd – 7^th 2012.

It seems  a little curious to be thinking and writing about , say , who becomes convenor of Clackmannanshire Council [  8 SNP ; 8 Labour; 1 Independent ; 1 Conservative ] where they might have to draw lots to decide on which man or woman assumes that office. Almost simultaneously , Greeks and the French are voting in ways that might determine the future of the Eurozone  , and with that our next 5-10 economic years in Scotland the wider UK .

That kind of choice  [ not Clackmannanshire  alone,  obviously ] is  what has filled our Saturday , Sunday and Monday papers and news broadcasts  here in Scotland to a greater extent than the implications of those elections in France, Greece, [ and Serbia and Armenia] so it’s worth giving those local elections a bit more thought  .

I am not going to sift my way through the detailed analysis of voting figures in this ward.... of that council ... and how many first preference votes were secured by the Green party where I live ; though  quite a lot actually and he topped the poll on 1^st preferences.

That kind of analysis  is not my favourite cup of tea.

I can do it ; however:

A ] Others have already done it  ; and I’d recommend the following for some fine detailed analysis

http://burdzeyeview.wordpress.com/

http://lallandspeatworrier.blogspot.co.uk/

http://www.gerryhassan.com/category/blog/

B] The prime data available is still in PDF form and I object to using a calculator to add figures up when a range of Excel files will soon [should soon ?]  be available to us all  .

C] Diving down  through  several levels of analysis [ as happens when you try and  calculate on the 7^th or 8^th stage of STV transfer  ] sometimes seems to me to run the danger of overstating the considered  deliberate choices of the ‘rational elector ‘. There is some marvellous material for this in the various LPW reviews of different Glasgow wards , with some entertaining byways . So we can see that  some  ‘Unionist’ votes transferred to the Greens and the SNP , and Gail Sheridan of Solidarity picked up Conservative transfer votes !

D] Such fine grain detailed scrutiny  can also lead to over indulgence  in ‘ angel dancing analysis’. So , for example , the suggestion that the SNP had variable success in their ‘voter management  strategy ‘ [ and how West Wing is that phrase ?] appears , on the face of it , to have some weight . It is among the reasons cited for SNP Edinburgh group leader Cardownie just scraping in,  and why former Depute Lord Provost Rob Munn  failed to be elected and his colleague McVey was. That latter defeat  is also attributed by some to the ‘alphabet ‘ problem in ballot papers . This strikes me as an even thinner argument ; we are not choosing between Aristotle and Zarathusa are we?.   Here’s a thought ; maybe in a city where local issues [ aka:  the trams ] were important , the voters attached most blame to the Lib Dems but also remembered the SNP group involvement as well – particularly in Leith which now gets all the disruption but none of the trams .

Elections by STV - Learning  new rules of the game  ?

So anyway …some further random observations about these elections …………

It seems that parties are slower to learn about how electoral systems work than are voters .

Back in 1999-2000 I chaired a committee that looked at ‘Renewing Local Democracy’ in Scotland , and most of our recommendations were legislated for in the Local Governance [Scotland ] Act . Top of the list was the introduction of the Single Transferable Vote for council elections and this was the one  issue that divided the members of the committee as the minority opposed the STV recommendation   . 

One of the reasons why the majority of us recommended STV,  rather than the system employed in the elections for the Parliament was that we thought it a system that provided greater equity of status to different representatives than did the constituency /list system [AMS] used at Holyrood [ and Cardiff].

It  was also apparent  at that point that there was likely to be a need for both parties and electors to be educated and informed about different forms of voting system than the long standing ‘X’ plurality system .  I recall thinking , at the first elections to the Scottish Parliament , that only the Green Party and the Scottish Socialist Party  had thought about how the  new system worked, others followed on at later elections  . A lot of voters got that :  indeed as a I also remember from that time it was often said that or Labour voters in Lothian  it made the choice obvious: Labour in the constituency – Robin Harper on the list . In Glasgow , ditto the constituency , Tommy Sheridan on the list .

 Even in 2011 , the  Labour Party still appeared to struggle with understanding how the electoral system worked – or still denied that it might work in the way it did in May last year . With one exception , Sarah Boyack in Edinburgh and simultaneously on the Lothian list, leading Labour candidates  were solely nominated in constituencies and those on the list were lesser lights in the party . Result : a self-decapitation strategy by former Labour Ministers that could have been avoided if Labour had followed the logic of the election system it legislated for in creating the Parliament .

This time round,  in the 2^nd local government elections held under STV, most electors seem to have got the hang of it . Papers were still spoilt inadvertently [ and of course some deliberately ] by using ‘X’ but not as many as some had feared .

There also appears to be some  evidence that most parties have learnt how the system might work best for them . Sometimes, of course , they still appear to   deny the logic of the system they attempt to work through,  as we can see this time round in a few places .

The first prize for electoral nouse must surely go the SNP campaign in Dundee    ; 15 councillors needed for a majority ; 16 candidates ; 16 elected. That’s a double top by any standards  .

Elsewhere,  both the SNP and Labour parties were trapped  by their own rhetorical assertions of being ‘winners ‘  into nominating too many candidates. This was  certainly in contrast to the last time round , when the SNP generally nominated too few candidates  . The intriguing question – relevant to both parties – is whether where &  when  they did this it was a  consciously self-destructive course of action  , or that they  simply didn’t work out what the implications  might be. Chest beating can be  an amusing activity  for observers to watch but as a political strategy it lacks  something .

Are elections  really a battle ?

In a nice column in The  Scotsman 7^th May  , Lesley Riddoch discusses and criticises the obsession that  both the major parties in Scotland parties have with ‘winning ‘ . Indeed the broadcast media this weekend  have been  filled with ever more complex constructions of what ‘winning ‘ might mean in such a distributed and semi-proportional system of election . For my money the best that can be said is that the elections were  a score draw for the two biggest parties  with even the monstering the Lib Dems  received in some areas  [Edinburgh; Aberdeen & Fife ] not repeated to the same degree  elsewhere [ e.g. the Highland Region].

But if they are a battle ?

I have taught Strategic Management in HE for a number of years . If you do that you get to  know that in almost every textbook , the early pages contain references to the strategy of war usually referencing Sun Tzu as a highly implausible model for modern management  . I’m not a fan of the warfare analogies but feel licensed to muse upon them in relation to these elections  by the repetitive headlines that the Sunday Herald gave to it’s election review on the 6^th  . “The battle for Glasgow …the battle for Edinburgh …the battle for the Highlands “.

Even before that I had been thinking about how the battle and warfare analogies applied to the positioning of these elections ..and remember  not all battles are the same .

Take the Lib Dems for example. A classic example of an attempted political ‘ defence in depth ‘ . In a number of  contests  they ran a smaller number of candidates than they had elected last time round  ,  for example Aberdeen , Edinburgh , Aberdeenshire [ I think ] hoping to huddle down with one candidate in most wards and hope the storm passed them by and hoping they’d survive . Some did ; some didn’t.

In a swathe of West coast councils Labour and the SNP were in a Viking ‘shield wall’ battle ; pushing and shoving at each other and hoping their side could push harder . It worked for Labour in the 4 where they got a majority,  and in Falkirk both shield walls stayed just where they started . It worked for the SNP – just – in  two of the Ayrshires, including the site of the Battle of Largs , and almost in Clackmannan and Midlothian .

Elsewhere , the SNP seemed to be following something of a ‘Haig’ approach . Blow the whistle ; kick a football; troops over the top; some of them may get through; others we mourn and bury .

......and after the battle ?

I think the point that could be taken from the piece by  Lesley Riddoch  is the difficulty that all parties can face ,  in respect of each other and in addressing electors , when at the end of what they describe as fierce battle they find they have to work together in some way – for a fixed period of 5 years and in  abody that cannot be dissolved  .

Now admittedly,  councils actually don’t have to make as many genuinely disputed  decisions as they claim they have to ; they can leave [ delegate ]  a lot to officials and  just leave the machinery of government rolling on . But in the current climate they are going to have to make decisions , and some hard ones.

Remember , in 23 councils there isn’t a party with 50% + 1 of the councillors elected .
How they manage over the next 5 years will be very interesting – and in some cases surprising  and it will be interesting to see if they do better/different than the 6 majority councils we have now.